Intercept — a launch, an attempt, and mostly a miss
One engagement at a time on the globe: a real launcher, a real city, a real interceptor site, and whether the shot connects. Most do not, and each attempt says which of the four reasons it failed for.
No probability of kill is taken from a test range. Each attempt is drawn from the same arithmetic the intercept lab draws: whether anything was in reach, which object it went for, and whether the kill vehicle could null the error in the time it had.