The years after — nuclear winter, the harvest and the famine
The soot from burning cities, the sunlight it takes away, the harvest that fails under it and the famine that follows, over fifteen years. A zonal energy-balance model fitted to the published climate runs.
The chain from the fires to the famine in five coupled models, validated against Robock 2007, Coupe 2019, Toon 2019, Xia 2022 and Bardeen 2021. How much fuel a burning city holds is the argument the whole thing turns on, and it is a control.